The event of the Arabs Spring in Syria has sharply divided the Syrian people. Since uprising began in Tunisia almost nine months ago, Syria has been experiencing violence and there is a potential fear that Syria would descent into more chaos or sectarian civil war should the current government in Damascus fall. Beyond this internal concern, there are regional consequences to the demise of President Basher Assad particularly in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan where there are historical issues related to minority Kurds in both countries. In this paper, I addressed who the winners and losers of the potential fall of the Assad’s regime are as well as regional potential implications of the Assad’s regime demise in case protesters in Syria get their wish.
Analysis of Syrian’s Uprising and Regional Impacts
As we studied in this class [Middle East and Politics], Syrian is seriously a divided nation. The present of different sectarian groups e.g. like Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds and Alawites complicated Syrian politics. Politically, the current situation in Syria is making many states in the region concern and wondering what this might mean to them. Internally, Syrian opposition wants to see Assad’s regime gone which is the reason why support among the protesters has survived this long. The opposition sees this as a political opportunity that those who don’t like Assad’s regime can use to push their agenda of overthrowing President Assad and his government. This too explains why Syrian uprising spread evenly to all the major cities in the country. The oppositions are using their infrastructures to facilitating the spread of protest and protesters in areas they see would likely weaken the government resolve and hope that those who are supporting the government join the opposition and the protesters and isolate Assad to accept resignation from power.
President Assad and his supporters on the other hand wanted to maintain the status quo. Assad particularly understands the nature of the Syrian politics and how current situation in Syria threatens his political survival. In my opinion, I believed that President Assad finally recognized the needs to accept political transformation to some extent. However, the current situation is not conducive to allow such political transformation that protesters and opposition are pushing for to happen at this time. First, the situation is very volatile and needs to be defused at little bit more which is what exactly President Assad is doing by using military to suppress protesters such that political steam that protesters and opposition have is neutralized. Second, Assad understands that if he accepts Protesters’ demands at this stage, there is a great danger that protesters will not accept whatever concession(s) that he makes. Instead, they may likely place more demands on Assad’s regime and that would be a political suicide for the Assad’s regime and he understands that clearly.
Therefore, because of this, President Assad only way out of this situation is doing four things which he is already doing. First, suppress the rebellion and inflict fear among people and force them to accept the current status quo. Second, while suppressing and inflicting fear in people, keep door opens to create a possibility of dialogue on his terms. Third, makes the other side appears as the one which is not interested in dialogue while you make himself the champion of peace. Fourth, reduce the political situation into an internal problem by downplaying its regional consequences.
Assad’s regime is doing well by executing all these brilliant moves. The regime is almost succeeding in crushing the rebellion. It has managed to keep the dialogue door opened and has made itself appeared as interested in finding political solution to the current situation. With respect to internalizing the Syrian rebellion, he has managed to downplay the implications that this crisis has on Syrian neighbors while at the same time made it known to its to them that it is in the best interest why his regime may be their best friend that they have when it comes to regional stability and security concerns of those nations
No doubt, I believed President Assad has used his political skills to contain the situation both internally and regionally. Internally, I think the rebellion/protesters strength has been weakened. It is a matter of time before protesters give in their demands and go back to their homes. I don’t believe protesters will ever gain further strength to energize their campaign against the Assad’s regime. Therefore, it would be in the best interest of the opposition and protesters to accept the little concessions that President Assad is willing to offer them. If they accepted Assad’s regime offer, protesters and political opposition can spin that as a success and may strengthen their future position in dealing with Assad’s regime. However, if they forgo this opportunity, Assad’s regime is going to emerge victorious and would toughen its position in its future dealing with the opposition.
Regionally, I think he has made his case known to some of Syrian neighbors particularly Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey both which can be directly or in-directly affected by the civil unrest in Syria. Thus, it is up to these states to decide whether to stand with Assad’s regime or stand with opposition and protesters who their goal is to cause Assad’s regime to collapse.
Personally, It makes sense for governments in these three countries to be much interested in seeing the Assad’s regime survives the Arabs Spring in Syrian for political and security reasons. In respect to Lebanon government which is threatened by Hezbollah popularity and its influence inside Lebanon, I think there is wishful thinking among some Lebanese government officials to see Syrian regime collapse. These people think that if Assad’s regime collapses, there is a possibility that Hezbollah would lose one of its strong support bases hence would lose its influence in Lebanon. For Hezbollah, regime in change in Syria would mean losing one of its supporters and it this could have a damaging effects to Hezbollah link to Iran because most of the Hezbollah financial assistances and weapons seem to pass through Damascus.
For some Lebanese government officials particularly Christians ruling coalition which are threatened by the possibility of a Shiites dominant Lebanon, talking of regime change in Syria threatens their political survival. In simplistic term, regime change in Syria may embolden Hezbollah and its Shiite majority to run down the Lebanese ruling coalition and replaces it with a Shiite dominated government. This would also mean that Shiites takeover in Lebanon may create two dangerous situations. As Hezbollah in the past has threatened to create an Islamic Republic in Lebanon, there is a potential that Hezbollah would finally achieve this goal of turning Lebanon into an Islamic Republic adding another theocratic regime in the region already experiencing a radical transformation. In addition, if Shiites and Hezbollah ascend to power in Lebanon, it may force its Shiites’ Islamic values on Christians and Sunnis who may not necessary agree with those values and this could take Lebanon back into a brutal civil war as well as causing humanitarian crisis in form of refugees influx to other countries in the region which are already dealing with refugee crisis created by continuous conflict in Iraq and in the Palestinian’s territory.
In Turkey, current situation is a compounded dilemma. Turkey as a moderate state courting to join the European Union is willing to criticize Assad and would like to see Assad carries out some political transformations in Syria. At the same time, Turkey needs Syria regime to help Turkey deals with some of its regional problems. For instance, the current situation in Syria already caused refugees influx into unstable Turkey territory. Politically, if current situation in Syria continues to force more refugees into this volatile Turkish territory particularly in Kurdistan region where Turkey outlawed Kurdistan Worker Party (PKK) has been engaged in activities that are aimed at destabilizing the Turkish government.
If this Kurdistan region of Turkey becomes more unstable, there is a potential danger that conflict may escalate and spread to other Turkish territories which Turkey does not want to happen. Moreover, I think Turkey fears regional reorganization that may emerge after the demise of the Assad’s regime. In Syria for example, Sunnis are becoming very vocal and should Assad’s regime be replaced by a Sunni dominated regime, there is a potential that new Syrian regime may give Sunnis monarchy in Saudi Arabia to exert more political and economic influences in Syria which would be threatening to Turkey desire to keep Syria as a close ally and route to its expanding market to the rest of the Middle East.
Not only is Turkey disturbed by the prospect of losing Assad as an ally, Turkey concern is bigger than that. The present deterioration of a political climate in Syria is a recipe for a political instability in Turkey. If Syria becomes embroiled in a civil war and with Assad regime that has helped to maintain stability in Syria gone, Kurds in Syria may try to take advantage of a power vacuum inside Syria to create their own state which could create a domino effects for Kurds in Turkey, Iraq and may create precedent among the rest of the Arabs countries in the region to do the same thing. Therefore, Turkey best political interest regarding Syrian current situation is to see Assad’s regime survives because current Syrian uprising creates a dilemma for Turkey government. If Turkey wants to avoid the potential of a domino effect, it would require Turkey to cooperate, and help President Assad to quell down the situation in order to preserve the current Syrian status quo which helps Turkey to control its Kurds problem in its own territory.
Regarding Jordan, there seems to be a mixed ways to explain the Syrian current political situation. First, relationship between Assad and the Jordanian ruling family is not cordial because of Syrian government past support to Palestinians groups that didn’t like King Abdullah and his monarchy. For this reason, I think Jordanian’s ruling family might be happy to see President Assad and his regime replaced by a different regime.
While this might be true, Jordanian ruling family should be keenly aware of the consequence that comes with Assad’s regime collapse. If the protesters and opposition succeeded in toppling President Assad and his regime, there is a likelihood that moderate Jordanians and opposition that want to establish a non-monarchic government in Jordan to take the mantle of “uprising” and stage a nationwide protest to seek a political and democratic reforms in Jordan which if it happens could bring an end to the Jordanian’s monarchy.
Moreover, civil war in Syria could turn in a war between Syria and Jordan given bad political relationship between the two countries. Syrian government has already begun pointing fingers toward Jordanian government and blames it for supporting Syrian rebellion around cities bordering Jordan. If situation in Syria worsens to where rebellion becomes more threatening to Assad’s regime. I am afraid that if Assad finds enough credible evident that directly linked Jordan and Syrian rebellion together, there is a prospect that Assad and his regime would take their anger and frustration on Jordan by declaring war on Jordanian’s monarch which if it happens may have implication beyond Syrian-Jordanian borders.
In summary, the Syrian’s uprising has more serious regional implications that Tunisian, Libyan and Egyptian uprisings didn’t have on the region. The dynamic nature of the Syrian rebellion has direct implications to some of its neighbors. For this reason, states like Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon are caught up in a political dilemma that Egypt, Libya and Tunisia neighbors did not experienced. For Egypt, Libya and Tunisia neighbors, the challenge was how to deal with refugee crises and there was no imminent fear of a war breaking out between different countries. The Syrian uprising and prospect of Syrian civil war as discussed above has the potential of turning into a regional civil war. Thus, the regional best hope at this time is to see Assad’s regime survives otherwise short of this; there is a risk that instability in Syria would spread beyond Syrian’s borders.
